Copa Colombia . Quarter-finals
Global 1-4
Alianza FC vs Millonarios analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.7%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.6%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.3%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.7%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.7%
35.7%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.7%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.3%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alianza FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2023 |
CAL
1 - 0
ALI
42%
28%
30%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2023 |
MIL
2 - 0
ALI
56%
24%
20%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2023 |
ALI
2 - 1
ONC
54%
24%
22%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2023 |
JAG
0 - 0
ALI
31%
29%
40%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
SFE
0 - 1
ALI
53%
26%
21%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep. 2023 |
MIL
2 - 0
ALI
56%
24%
20%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2023 |
ENV
1 - 2
MIL
24%
27%
49%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2023 |
MIL
2 - 1
HUI
66%
22%
12%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2023 |
IND
1 - 1
MIL
42%
27%
31%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
MIL
3 - 0
BUC
58%
24%
18%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | +1 |