FA Cup . 1/256
Global 3-3
Penrith AFC vs Scarborough Athletic analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.5%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
6.4%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
14.1%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
54.6%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.7%
0-2
8%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
16.6%
0-3
5.2%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.2%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.1%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penrith AFC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2013 |
SCA
1 - 1
PEN
71%
17%
12%
|
16 | 28 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2013 |
PEN
3 - 1
PAD
41%
24%
36%
|
15 | 17 | 2 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 2013 |
SHI
0 - 2
PEN
73%
17%
11%
|
14 | 26 | 12 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2013 |
PEN
3 - 1
NEW
27%
23%
50%
|
12 | 19 | 7 | +2 |
Matches
Scarborough Athletic
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2013 |
SCA
1 - 1
PEN
71%
17%
12%
|
28 | 16 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2013 |
BRI
0 - 3
SCA
47%
22%
31%
|
27 | 24 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Sep. 2013 |
SCA
1 - 3
COA
16%
20%
64%
|
28 | 47 | 19 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 2013 |
TEA
0 - 4
SCA
17%
20%
62%
|
28 | 11 | 17 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2013 |
SCA
1 - 3
SHE
27%
21%
52%
|
30 | 36 | 6 | -2 |