Nacional vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.2%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
23%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23%
21%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.5%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2013 |
DAN
0 - 1
NAC
25%
26%
49%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2013 |
NAC
2 - 2
CER
77%
16%
7%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2013 |
FEN
2 - 2
NAC
21%
25%
55%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2013 |
NAC
0 - 1
BOC
57%
23%
20%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 2013 |
NAC
2 - 1
CEN
70%
18%
12%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | +1 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2013 |
TOL
1 - 0
TIJ
49%
25%
26%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2013 |
QRO
1 - 0
TOL
31%
29%
40%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2013 |
BSC
0 - 0
TOL
46%
26%
28%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2013 |
TOL
0 - 1
ATS
60%
23%
17%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | -1 |
| 07 Mar. 2013 |
TOL
1 - 1
BSC
58%
24%
19%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | +1 |