Ecuador vs Iraq analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.4%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.8%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.8%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.9%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
17%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
17%
9.6%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.1%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2022 |
JPN
0 - 0
ECU
55%
23%
22%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2022 |
SAU
0 - 0
ECU
23%
26%
51%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2022 |
ECU
1 - 0
CPV
85%
11%
4%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2022 |
MEX
0 - 0
ECU
54%
24%
23%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2022 |
ECU
1 - 0
NGA
65%
20%
15%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Iraq
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 2022 |
MEX
4 - 0
IRQ
72%
19%
9%
|
79 | 90 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2022 |
SYR
0 - 1
IRQ
38%
26%
36%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2022 |
IRQ
1 - 1
OMN
46%
27%
27%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2022 |
IRQ
3 - 1
ZMB
53%
25%
22%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2022 |
IRQ
1 - 0
UGA
60%
24%
16%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | +1 |