Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.5%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.5%
20%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
+32%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1969 |
BSC
1 - 1
NAC
39%
25%
36%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 1969 |
QUI
0 - 0
NAC
41%
24%
35%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1969 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
NAC
58%
21%
21%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1968 |
LIB
0 - 2
NAC
58%
20%
22%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1968 |
GUA
2 - 1
NAC
45%
23%
32%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1969 |
QUI
1 - 1
PEÑ
42%
25%
33%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 1969 |
BSC
0 - 2
PEÑ
41%
25%
34%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1969 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
NAC
58%
21%
21%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1968 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
PAL
62%
20%
18%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | -1 |
| 18 Apr. 1968 |
PAL
1 - 0
PEÑ
53%
23%
25%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |