Liga MX Finals Cl. . Quarter-finals
Global 4-2
Toluca vs América analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
22.5%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+22%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 2004 |
TOL
4 - 1
SAN
62%
21%
18%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2004 |
SNL
1 - 1
TOL
23%
26%
51%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2004 |
TOL
2 - 2
ATS
63%
20%
17%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2004 |
AME
2 - 1
TOL
44%
26%
30%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2004 |
TOL
2 - 0
MON
63%
20%
17%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 2004 |
PUE
1 - 3
AME
26%
24%
50%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2004 |
AME
1 - 1
SAO
47%
27%
26%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2004 |
AME
3 - 2
NEC
54%
24%
22%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2004 |
SAO
2 - 1
AME
46%
26%
28%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | -1 |
| 02 May. 2004 |
CHI
0 - 1
AME
36%
26%
38%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | +1 |