The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66%
Win probability
2.48
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.1%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13%
2-0
8%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.6%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.7%
16.3%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.2%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+86%
-21%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
92
1º
1º
1º
41
2º
5º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
92 | 30 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 14 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 12 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
44 | 11 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
41 | 10 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
100% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 6
TNS
41%
23%
36%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
TNS
1 - 2
AIR
63%
18%
19%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
NEW
0 - 1
TNS
38%
25%
38%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 2024 |
CON
1 - 5
TNS
43%
25%
32%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
TNS
4 - 0
CAR
65%
19%
16%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 2
CAR
47%
25%
28%
|
62 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
2 - 1
CON
43%
25%
32%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 2024 |
BAL
1 - 1
CAE
49%
25%
27%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 0
NEW
43%
24%
33%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 8
TNS
37%
24%
38%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | -1 |