Capixaba Fase Final. Semi-finals
Global 3-2
Real Noroeste vs Serra FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.1%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.5%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
10%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
29.3%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.2%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-36%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Noroeste
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2022 |
REA
3 - 1
RIO
49%
25%
26%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2022 |
RIO
1 - 0
REA
33%
26%
41%
|
51 | 46 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 Mar. 2022 |
EST
1 - 1
REA
24%
25%
51%
|
51 | 44 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2022 |
REA
0 - 1
NVE
36%
23%
42%
|
52 | 53 | 1 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 2022 |
REA
0 - 1
JUV
17%
23%
60%
|
53 | 73 | 20 | -1 |
Matches
Serra FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2022 |
SER
3 - 1
VFC
60%
21%
19%
|
48 | 39 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2022 |
VFC
1 - 3
SER
29%
23%
48%
|
47 | 41 | 6 | +1 |
| 26 Mar. 2022 |
VFC
2 - 3
SER
32%
23%
45%
|
47 | 42 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2022 |
SER
3 - 0
COL
16%
19%
66%
|
45 | 57 | 12 | +2 |
| 13 Mar. 2022 |
RVV
1 - 2
SER
56%
22%
21%
|
44 | 51 | 7 | +1 |