Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
40.7%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.2%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.5%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
34.9%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
8%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
1º
8º
3º
0
5º
17º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
11º
|
3 | 55 |
1º
|
13% | |
|
5º
|
4 | 54 |
2º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
4 | 54 |
3º
|
8.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 53 |
4º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
17º
|
0 | 52 |
5º
|
7% | |
|
2º
|
6 | 52 |
6º
|
5% | |
|
1º
|
6 | 50 |
7º
|
6.5% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 50 |
8º
|
9% | |
|
3º
|
6 | 49 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
8º
|
3 | 49 |
10º
|
6% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 47 |
11º
|
6% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 44 |
12º
|
10% | |
|
7º
|
3 | 43 |
13º
|
7% | |
|
15º
|
0 | 41 |
14º
|
7.5% | |
|
9º
|
3 | 41 |
15º
|
10.5% | |
|
4º
|
6 | 41 |
16º
|
15.5% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 38 |
17º
|
10% | |
|
13º
|
1 | 36 |
18º
|
28.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
30.5% | 18% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
8.5% | 8.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
59.5% | 67.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 3.5% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 2.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paderborn
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
HAN
2 - 3
PAD
35%
25%
41%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
BSV
2 - 2
PAD
19%
22%
59%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2025 |
KSC
3 - 0
PAD
40%
24%
36%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
PAD
2 - 1
MAG
49%
23%
28%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2025 |
S04
0 - 2
PAD
34%
24%
41%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Holstein Kiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
OSN
0 - 1
HOL
20%
22%
58%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
EBT
1 - 4
HOL
25%
23%
53%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2025 |
MIN
0 - 0
HOL
35%
23%
42%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
WEI
1 - 2
HOL
7%
14%
79%
|
87 | 58 | 29 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
BVB
3 - 0
HOL
80%
14%
7%
|
87 | 99 | 12 | 0 |