Conmebol Sudamericana . 1/16
Global 3-6
Nacional vs Aurora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.9%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.4%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.5%
16.7%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2011 |
LQE
1 - 0
NAC
23%
26%
51%
|
79 | 61 | 18 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 1
CCP
48%
27%
26%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 0
SAN
57%
23%
21%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
AME
0 - 1
NAC
22%
26%
52%
|
79 | 61 | 18 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 0
GEN
71%
20%
9%
|
79 | 61 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2011 |
AUR
0 - 0
BLO
50%
26%
25%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2011 |
STR
1 - 3
AUR
58%
23%
19%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | +1 |
| 19 May. 2011 |
AUR
1 - 0
RPO
40%
26%
34%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2011 |
LAP
0 - 3
AUR
39%
26%
35%
|
65 | 60 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 May. 2011 |
AUR
3 - 0
REA
57%
23%
20%
|
64 | 59 | 5 | +1 |