Copa Libertadores . Quarter-finals
Global 2-3
Millonarios vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.6%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.7%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
23.6%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 1995 |
NAC
2 - 1
MIL
58%
22%
20%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1995 |
MIL
2 - 0
ALI
73%
17%
10%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1995 |
ALI
1 - 1
MIL
35%
27%
38%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1995 |
UCH
3 - 2
MIL
45%
24%
30%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 1995 |
UCO
4 - 1
MIL
55%
23%
22%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 1995 |
NAC
2 - 1
MIL
58%
22%
20%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1995 |
PEÑ
1 - 3
NAC
48%
26%
26%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | +1 |
| 26 Apr. 1995 |
NAC
3 - 1
PEÑ
47%
26%
28%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1995 |
UCH
0 - 0
NAC
47%
27%
26%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1995 |
UCO
1 - 1
NAC
55%
25%
21%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |