Italy U21 vs Spain U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.4%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.4%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
34.1%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.8%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 2012 |
SWE
2 - 3
ITA
27%
26%
47%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2012 |
ITA
1 - 0
SWE
64%
22%
15%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2012 |
ITA
2 - 4
IRL
78%
16%
6%
|
83 | 55 | 28 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2012 |
ITA
7 - 0
LIE
85%
12%
3%
|
83 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2012 |
NLD
0 - 3
ITA
32%
27%
40%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Spain U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 2012 |
DNK
1 - 3
ESP
21%
25%
54%
|
84 | 64 | 20 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2012 |
ESP
5 - 0
DNK
76%
16%
8%
|
84 | 64 | 20 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2012 |
ESP
6 - 0
HRV
72%
18%
10%
|
84 | 67 | 17 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2012 |
CHE
0 - 0
ESP
30%
27%
42%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2012 |
EST
0 - 1
ESP
7%
16%
77%
|
84 | 37 | 47 | 0 |