Derby County vs Port Vale analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
71.5%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.1%
2-0
13%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.5%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.8%
10.7%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 1921 |
POR
1 - 1
DER
46%
26%
28%
|
72 | 59 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 1921 |
DER
3 - 1
WHU
60%
24%
16%
|
71 | 73 | 2 | +1 |
| 17 Dec. 1921 |
WHU
3 - 1
DER
52%
26%
22%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | -1 |
| 10 Dec. 1921 |
LEI
1 - 1
DER
48%
26%
27%
|
72 | 65 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 1921 |
DER
0 - 1
LEI
73%
18%
10%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Port Vale
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 1921 |
POR
1 - 1
DER
46%
26%
28%
|
59 | 72 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 1921 |
BAR
3 - 2
POR
66%
21%
14%
|
59 | 68 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1921 |
POR
2 - 3
BAR
53%
25%
23%
|
60 | 68 | 8 | -1 |
| 10 Dec. 1921 |
POR
0 - 2
WOL
58%
22%
20%
|
61 | 63 | 2 | -1 |
| 03 Dec. 1921 |
WOL
2 - 0
POR
63%
21%
16%
|
61 | 62 | 1 | 0 |