Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 3-1
Cienciano vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.9%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.9%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
22%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cienciano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 2
CIE
61%
21%
19%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2003 |
ALI
4 - 1
CIE
44%
25%
31%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2003 |
CIE
3 - 4
SPC
48%
25%
27%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Oct. 2003 |
CIE
2 - 1
SAN
29%
24%
46%
|
75 | 86 | 11 | +1 |
| 26 Oct. 2003 |
MEL
1 - 0
CIE
33%
26%
41%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2003 |
JUN
1 - 0
NAC
44%
28%
29%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 0
JUN
56%
25%
19%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Nov. 2003 |
IND
1 - 2
NAC
53%
26%
22%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 2
CIE
61%
21%
19%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | -1 |
| 09 Nov. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 2
TOL
56%
25%
19%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |