Conmebol Sudamericana . Quarter-finals
Global 1-1
Cerro Porteño vs Boca Juniors analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.3%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.8%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
27%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27%
29.7%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
8.1%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2004 |
CCP
5 - 0
GUA
58%
24%
18%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2004 |
AME
1 - 2
CCP
28%
28%
44%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2004 |
BOC
1 - 1
CCP
61%
23%
16%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2004 |
CCP
2 - 0
TAC
59%
23%
18%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2004 |
12O
0 - 0
CCP
25%
28%
47%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov. 2004 |
RIV
2 - 0
BOC
52%
24%
24%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2004 |
BOC
0 - 0
INS
77%
16%
7%
|
83 | 56 | 27 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2004 |
BOC
1 - 1
CCP
61%
23%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2004 |
ARG
1 - 0
BOC
18%
24%
58%
|
84 | 63 | 21 | -1 |
| 20 Oct. 2004 |
BOC
1 - 1
BAN
63%
22%
16%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |