Who is likely to progress to the Semi-Finals?

After some incredible come backs in the Last 16, with Ajax defeating Real Madrid, and Manchester United defeating Paris Saint-Germain despite both trailing after their home legs. We look ahead at the probability of each team to progress to the last 4, starting with tonight's matches between Barcelona and Manchester United and Ajax and Juventus, before looking ahead at tomorrow's games involving Manchester City and Tottenham and Liverpool and Porto.

Juventus v Ajax

The Turin side is the clear favourite after the 1-1 draw at the Johann Cruyff ArenA last week. Juventus have a 68.42% chance of progressing to the last 4, due mainly to the away goal scored by the everscoring Cristiano Ronaldo. Should he add to his 125 Champions League goals in Turin tonight it will be hard to see anything other than Juve progressing to the last 4.

Ajax have a 31.58% chance of progressing to the Semi-Finals. Based on previous results in the Champions League knockout stages, On only 66 occasions of the 209 have the side who drew at home in the first leg progressed, with the remaining 143 going to the side who were away in the first leg.

Barcelona v Manchester United

Of the 8 Quarter-Finalists, Barcelona are statistically the most likely team to advance to the Semi-Finals. On 146 ocassions where the away side won 0-1 in the first leg, 135 times that team have progressed. 

This leaves Barcelona with a 92.47% chance of progression, with Manchester United having just a 7.53% chance of progression statistically.

Manchester City v Tottenham

Tottenham have got themselves into the position where they are the favourites to progress on Wednesday. Having won 1-0 at home in the first leg, they have a 56.57% chance of progressing to the last 4.

City are statsistically the underdogs heading into Wednesday night's tie, something that has been a rarity this season as the club chase an unprecedented quadruple. On 274 ocassions has the home side in the first leg won 1-0, with them going on to win on 155 of those times, on 119 ocassions has the scoreline been reversed in the second leg. 

Porto v Liverpool

Although the gap between Liverpool and Porto is the biggest out of the 4 ties, Barcelona are statistically the most likely team to progress to the next round. Liverpool do have an 83.96% chance of qualifying however, based on previous European results.

Porto, trailing 2-0 after the first leg at Anfield, have a 16.04% chance of progression, showing it is not toally impossible for the Portuguese side to progress. 2-0 has been the scoreline 187 times previously, and in 157 cases, the team with the lead went through, however on 30 ocassions the tie was overturned by the side trailing after the first leg.