UCL Qualifying Second Round Final
Global 4-5
Zurich vs Qarabağ analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.7%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.4%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
20.5%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.5%
16.8%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Zurich
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2022 |
ZUR
0 - 0
FCL
55%
22%
23%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2022 |
QAR
3 - 2
ZUR
35%
24%
41%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2022 |
YOB
4 - 0
ZUR
51%
22%
27%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Jul. 2022 |
STU
3 - 2
ZUR
34%
24%
42%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2022 |
ZUR
3 - 1
VIK
82%
12%
6%
|
82 | 61 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Qarabağ
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2022 |
QAR
3 - 2
ZUR
35%
24%
41%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2022 |
QAR
5 - 1
LPO
40%
25%
35%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | +1 |
| 05 Jul. 2022 |
LPO
1 - 0
QAR
57%
23%
21%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2022 |
CSU
1 - 1
QAR
52%
24%
24%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2022 |
HOL
2 - 2
QAR
41%
25%
34%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | 0 |