Sax vs Rafal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.8%
Win probability
2.84
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2.2%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.8%
5-0
4.6%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.3%
4-0
8.1%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.7%
3-0
11.4%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.6%
12.1%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
12%
6.1%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
2%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.6%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-22%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
MON
1 - 1
UDF
50%
22%
29%
|
17 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2024 |
UDF
0 - 3
GUS
35%
22%
43%
|
18 | 21 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
ALG
0 - 2
UDF
7%
14%
79%
|
18 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
UDF
3 - 1
ASP
49%
22%
29%
|
17 | 17 | 0 | +1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
RAC
1 - 2
UDF
9%
15%
76%
|
17 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Rafal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr. 2024 |
RAF
4 - 1
PRV
53%
21%
26%
|
9 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
UDL
2 - 0
RAF
24%
21%
55%
|
12 | 6 | 6 | -3 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
RAF
1 - 1
SPD
67%
19%
15%
|
12 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
ELD
1 - 2
RAF
73%
15%
12%
|
11 | 14 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
MON
2 - 1
RAF
64%
20%
16%
|
12 | 15 | 3 | -1 |