The New Saints vs Cardiff MU analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.9%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
15.6%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+83%
-35%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
62
1º
2º
1º
34
4º
7º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Next round
|
100% | 74.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 25.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CON
0 - 4
TNS
44%
25%
32%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CAE
71%
16%
13%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
HAV
0 - 1
TNS
30%
25%
45%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
3 - 0
PEN
62%
20%
18%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2023 |
CAR
0 - 3
TNS
8%
14%
78%
|
66 | 45 | 21 | +1 |
Matches
Cardiff MU
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jan. 2024 |
SWA
0 - 0
CAR
32%
22%
46%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2023 |
BAR
0 - 0
CAR
23%
26%
51%
|
67 | 52 | 15 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
CAR
0 - 3
PEN
43%
26%
30%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2023 |
CAR
1 - 0
PON
72%
18%
10%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
BAL
0 - 1
CAR
47%
26%
27%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |