Estrella Papilon vs Deportivo Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
30.9%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
9%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
6.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
16%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
7%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.2%
47.9%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
4.8%
3-4
1.4%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
20.2%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
5.9%
2-4
2.5%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
14.3%
0-3
3.6%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
7.9%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
3.5%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-33%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Estrella Papilon
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
RIV
1 - 3
EST
49%
21%
30%
|
19 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
DAK
6 - 1
EST
71%
16%
13%
|
20 | 28 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
BRI
1 - 0
EST
68%
17%
14%
|
20 | 28 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
RCA
0 - 1
EST
71%
17%
13%
|
19 | 27 | 8 | +1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
NAC
4 - 1
EST
72%
15%
13%
|
19 | 27 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Deportivo Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
BRI
6 - 3
NAC
46%
23%
32%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 1
RCA
58%
20%
23%
|
28 | 27 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
DAK
0 - 0
NAC
49%
21%
29%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
RIV
0 - 3
NAC
29%
21%
50%
|
27 | 20 | 7 | +1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
NAC
4 - 1
EST
72%
15%
13%
|
27 | 19 | 8 | 0 |