Italy vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.8%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.8%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.2%
1-0
13.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
17.6%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.2%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 1984 |
CHE
1 - 1
ITA
25%
29%
45%
|
91 | 79 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1984 |
ITA
1 - 0
SWE
68%
20%
12%
|
91 | 85 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 1984 |
YUG
2 - 1
ITA
27%
30%
43%
|
91 | 35 | 56 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 1984 |
ITA
1 - 2
BRA
40%
28%
33%
|
91 | 95 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 1984 |
ITA
1 - 0
CHL
70%
20%
11%
|
91 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1984 |
POL
2 - 2
ALB
92%
6%
2%
|
89 | 64 | 25 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1984 |
POL
3 - 1
GRC
83%
13%
5%
|
89 | 72 | 17 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1984 |
POL
2 - 0
TUR
82%
13%
5%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 1984 |
FIN
0 - 2
POL
15%
21%
65%
|
88 | 58 | 30 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1984 |
NOR
1 - 1
POL
22%
27%
52%
|
89 | 68 | 21 | -1 |