Italy vs Luxembourg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
86%
Win probability
2.46
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.8%
6-0
2.1%
7-1
0.2%
+6
2.2%
5-0
5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
5.5%
4-0
10.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
11.5%
3-0
16.5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.2%
+3
19.2%
2-0
20.1%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
24.6%
1-0
16.3%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
<0%
+1
21.9%
11.4%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
4.1%
2-2
0.6%
3-3
<0%
0
11.4%
2.5%
Win probability
0.25
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
0.5%
2-3
0.1%
-1
2.2%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0%
-2
0.3%
0-3
0%
-3
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+42%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov. 1981 |
ITA
1 - 1
GRC
83%
14%
4%
|
92 | 73 | 19 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1981 |
YUG
1 - 1
ITA
45%
26%
29%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 1981 |
ITA
3 - 2
BGR
79%
16%
5%
|
92 | 80 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 1981 |
DNK
3 - 1
ITA
26%
27%
47%
|
92 | 79 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1981 |
ITA
0 - 0
DDR
60%
23%
16%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Luxembourg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov. 1981 |
YUG
5 - 0
LUX
89%
8%
3%
|
40 | 88 | 48 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1981 |
ESP
3 - 0
LUX
84%
11%
5%
|
40 | 88 | 48 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1981 |
LUX
1 - 2
DNK
26%
28%
47%
|
40 | 78 | 38 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1981 |
LUX
0 - 2
GRC
27%
28%
45%
|
41 | 72 | 31 | -1 |
| 28 Jan. 1981 |
GRC
2 - 0
LUX
82%
13%
6%
|
41 | 72 | 31 | 0 |