Champions League . Semi-finals
Global 6-5Real Madrid vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.4%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.8%
2-0
5%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.4%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
42.2%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
4.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.6%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2022 |
RMA
4 - 0
ESP
80%
14%
7%
|
94 | 82 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2022 |
MAC
4 - 3
RMA
61%
20%
19%
|
93 | 96 | 3 | +1 |
| 20 Apr. 2022 |
OSA
1 - 3
RMA
11%
19%
70%
|
93 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2022 |
SEV
2 - 3
RMA
24%
24%
52%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2022 |
RMA
2 - 3
CHL
50%
23%
27%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2022 |
LEE
0 - 4
MAC
8%
17%
76%
|
96 | 82 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2022 |
MAC
4 - 3
RMA
61%
20%
19%
|
96 | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2022 |
MAC
5 - 1
WAT
88%
9%
3%
|
96 | 78 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2022 |
MAC
3 - 0
BHA
86%
11%
4%
|
95 | 82 | 13 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2022 |
MAC
2 - 3
LIV
52%
22%
27%
|
96 | 95 | 1 | -1 |