Peñarol vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.3%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
26.6%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2018 |
LIB
2 - 1
PEÑ
35%
27%
38%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2018 |
FEN
0 - 3
PEÑ
26%
26%
48%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2018 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
JUN
73%
17%
10%
|
82 | 66 | 16 | -1 |
| 05 Apr. 2018 |
PEÑ
3 - 1
ATT
59%
22%
19%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | +2 |
| 01 Apr. 2018 |
TOR
2 - 0
PEÑ
19%
23%
58%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | -1 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 0
BOS
67%
21%
12%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2018 |
GAR
0 - 0
NAC
31%
26%
43%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | -3 |
| 31 Mar. 2018 |
NAC
0 - 0
LFC
68%
20%
12%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | +2 |
| 28 Mar. 2018 |
MWA
0 - 2
NAC
30%
27%
43%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 0
RIV
62%
22%
16%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |