Nacional SP vs Ituano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.1%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.2%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.9%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
26.7%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.1%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-31%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2018 |
POR
1 - 0
NAC
27%
25%
48%
|
58 | 51 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2018 |
RIO
1 - 2
NAC
41%
25%
34%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | +1 |
| 21 Mar. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 2
AGU
62%
21%
16%
|
58 | 50 | 8 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 2018 |
NAC
2 - 2
XVD
42%
26%
33%
|
58 | 60 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2018 |
AUD
0 - 0
NAC
22%
24%
54%
|
58 | 47 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Ituano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 2018 |
ITU
0 - 2
MIR
39%
26%
35%
|
57 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2018 |
ITU
2 - 2
FER
30%
27%
42%
|
56 | 64 | 8 | +1 |
| 17 Mar. 2018 |
SAO
1 - 2
ITU
44%
28%
28%
|
56 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2018 |
ITU
0 - 3
PAL
13%
22%
65%
|
56 | 85 | 29 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2018 |
SAO
0 - 1
ITU
43%
28%
29%
|
55 | 60 | 5 | +1 |