Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.4%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
28.9%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+26%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2014 |
FEN
0 - 3
NAC
23%
24%
53%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2014 |
NAC
2 - 0
REN
71%
18%
10%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
NAC
2 - 0
RAC
68%
19%
13%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | +2 |
| 05 Oct. 2014 |
JUN
0 - 2
NAC
19%
23%
58%
|
80 | 63 | 17 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 2014 |
NAC
2 - 0
MWA
62%
21%
17%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2014 |
PEÑ
2 - 3
JUN
72%
18%
10%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2014 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
EST
49%
26%
25%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
MWA
2 - 1
PEÑ
32%
25%
43%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2014 |
EST
2 - 1
PEÑ
38%
27%
35%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | -1 |
| 11 Oct. 2014 |
PEÑ
4 - 1
ATE
69%
19%
11%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |