Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.4%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.2%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.4%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
31.4%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
1º
6º
1º
18
1º
8º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
31% | 3.5% |
|
Next round
|
63.5% | 58.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
5.5% | 38% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
53%
23%
23%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
MEL
3 - 0
SYD
49%
25%
26%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
WES
3 - 4
MEL
47%
26%
28%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2023 |
CCM
2 - 2
MEL
59%
22%
20%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2023 |
MFC
1 - 1
MEL
41%
27%
33%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Adelaide United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Dec. 2023 |
ADE
3 - 1
NEW
59%
23%
19%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2023 |
WES
1 - 0
ADE
42%
25%
33%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | -1 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
ADE
0 - 2
BRI
50%
25%
26%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Dec. 2023 |
MFC
4 - 3
ADE
34%
26%
40%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 Nov. 2023 |
WUF
1 - 3
ADE
31%
25%
44%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | +1 |