EFL Cup . Semi-finals
Global 2-3
Manchester United vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.6%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.9%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
57.8%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
0-1
11%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
10.1%
1-3
6.1%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.8%
0-3
6.2%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.6%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.1%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan. 2020 |
WOL
0 - 0
MUD
34%
27%
39%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2020 |
ARS
2 - 0
MUD
47%
24%
29%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2019 |
BUR
0 - 2
MUD
24%
26%
50%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2019 |
MUD
4 - 1
NEW
62%
22%
16%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2019 |
WAT
2 - 0
MUD
22%
25%
53%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan. 2020 |
MAC
4 - 1
POR
93%
6%
1%
|
93 | 55 | 38 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2020 |
MAC
2 - 1
EVE
75%
15%
10%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2019 |
MAC
2 - 0
SHE
88%
9%
3%
|
93 | 79 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 2019 |
WOL
3 - 2
MAC
12%
19%
69%
|
93 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2019 |
MAC
3 - 1
LEI
72%
16%
12%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | 0 |