Excelsior vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.1%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
10%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.2%
24.9%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct. 2003 |
FCO
1 - 2
EXC
30%
24%
46%
|
70 | 57 | 13 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2003 |
EIN
0 - 1
EXC
32%
24%
44%
|
69 | 60 | 9 | +1 |
| 23 Sep. 2003 |
EXC
2 - 0
VVV
68%
18%
15%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2003 |
EXC
2 - 0
MVV
78%
14%
8%
|
68 | 54 | 14 | +1 |
| 15 Sep. 2003 |
APE
0 - 2
EXC
32%
24%
44%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct. 2003 |
HER
2 - 0
MVV
77%
15%
8%
|
70 | 52 | 18 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2003 |
HER
4 - 0
ADO
44%
25%
31%
|
68 | 75 | 7 | +2 |
| 19 Sep. 2003 |
HER
3 - 0
EIN
64%
20%
16%
|
68 | 59 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2003 |
HER
2 - 0
FCO
65%
19%
15%
|
67 | 57 | 10 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 2003 |
TEL
2 - 1
HER
31%
25%
43%
|
68 | 60 | 8 | -1 |