Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.4%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.8%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
22.8%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
-16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
59
2º
4º
3º
41
2º
5º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
92 | 30 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 14 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 12 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
44 | 11 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
41 | 10 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
PEN
0 - 1
CON
47%
26%
28%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CON
0 - 4
TNS
44%
25%
32%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
NEW
1 - 2
CON
48%
25%
26%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
CON
3 - 1
PON
73%
18%
9%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2023 |
FLI
0 - 3
CON
25%
23%
52%
|
67 | 57 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
CAR
2 - 2
CAE
52%
24%
24%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
COL
62%
20%
18%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
TNS
2 - 1
CAE
71%
16%
13%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
CAE
0 - 1
HAV
51%
24%
26%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
PON
1 - 2
CAE
26%
24%
50%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | +1 |