Benfica vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.3%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.1%
4-0
6.6%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.9%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.9%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
15.5%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
15.5%
8.1%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.2%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 2003 |
UDL
0 - 3
SLB
34%
25%
41%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2003 |
SLB
1 - 1
MOR
78%
15%
7%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2003 |
SLB
1 - 0
BMA
79%
14%
7%
|
83 | 64 | 19 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2003 |
MAR
1 - 2
SLB
31%
25%
44%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2003 |
VIT
1 - 1
SLB
33%
25%
43%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 0
BMA
52%
25%
24%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2003 |
MAR
2 - 3
NAC
62%
22%
16%
|
63 | 73 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Jan. 2003 |
NAC
0 - 0
VIT
37%
27%
36%
|
63 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2003 |
GFC
2 - 0
NAC
59%
22%
19%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | -1 |
| 12 Jan. 2003 |
BOA
0 - 0
NAC
67%
21%
13%
|
63 | 82 | 19 | +1 |