Copa del Rey . Quarter-finals
Global 5-3
Barcelona vs Numancia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
85.9%
Win probability
2.85
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.3%
6-0
2.7%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
3.2%
5-0
5.7%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
7.1%
4-0
10%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
12.9%
3-0
14%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
19.3%
2-0
14.8%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.9%
10.3%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
4.8%
2-2
1.6%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
10.3%
3.8%
Win probability
0.47
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
1.1%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
3.1%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.6%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 1996 |
FCB
3 - 0
RMA
61%
20%
19%
|
90 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1996 |
RAY
1 - 1
FCB
20%
23%
57%
|
90 | 75 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1996 |
NUM
2 - 2
FCB
10%
22%
67%
|
90 | 56 | 34 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1996 |
FCB
3 - 1
ZAR
75%
16%
9%
|
90 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1996 |
MER
0 - 0
FCB
17%
22%
60%
|
90 | 75 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Numancia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 1996 |
AMU
1 - 1
NUM
31%
28%
42%
|
57 | 34 | 23 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1996 |
NUM
3 - 1
RUN
60%
24%
16%
|
57 | 45 | 12 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1996 |
NUM
2 - 2
FCB
10%
22%
67%
|
56 | 90 | 34 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 1996 |
OSA
1 - 1
NUM
34%
29%
37%
|
56 | 46 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1996 |
TUD
1 - 2
NUM
30%
29%
41%
|
56 | 42 | 14 | 0 |