Copa Colombia . Final
Global 4-3
At. Nacional vs Once Caldas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.8%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.8%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
11%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.4%
18.8%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2018 |
ONC
2 - 0
NAC
37%
28%
36%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2018 |
ONC
2 - 2
NAC
37%
29%
35%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 0
JUN
55%
25%
20%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2018 |
AGU
1 - 3
NAC
23%
30%
47%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2018 |
NAC
0 - 0
CAL
61%
22%
17%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Once Caldas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2018 |
ONC
2 - 0
NAC
37%
28%
36%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2018 |
ONC
2 - 2
NAC
37%
29%
35%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2018 |
PAT
1 - 0
ONC
30%
28%
42%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2018 |
ONC
1 - 0
SFE
42%
28%
30%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2018 |
MIL
1 - 1
ONC
47%
27%
27%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |