Copa Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 4-2
At. Nacional vs Coritiba analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.7%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
19.1%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
IND
2 - 2
NAC
38%
28%
35%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2016 |
COT
1 - 1
NAC
41%
27%
32%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2016 |
NAC
4 - 0
HUI
67%
20%
12%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2016 |
SFE
1 - 4
NAC
44%
28%
28%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2016 |
AGU
1 - 1
NAC
42%
27%
32%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Coritiba
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
COT
1 - 1
FLU
40%
28%
33%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2016 |
COT
1 - 1
NAC
41%
27%
32%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2016 |
ATP
2 - 0
COT
52%
26%
22%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2016 |
COT
0 - 0
FFL
54%
24%
22%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2016 |
SCI
1 - 0
COT
57%
24%
19%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |