Aprilia vs Paganese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
20.1%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.2%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
13%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.3%
57.7%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24%
0-2
9.7%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.7%
0-3
6.1%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.7%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.2%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
7º
18º
17º
68
1º
9º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
68 | 71 |
1º
|
77% | |
|
2º
|
68 | 68 |
2º
|
77% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 56 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 55 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
50 | 50 |
5º
|
21.5% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 48 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
47 | 48 |
7º
|
47% | |
|
8º
|
43 | 44 |
8º
|
60.5% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 43 |
9º
|
34.5% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 41 |
10º
|
32.5% | |
|
11º
|
40 | 41 |
11º
|
25.5% | |
|
12º
|
40 | 40 |
12º
|
56.5% | |
|
14º
|
38 | 39 |
13º
|
36% | |
|
13º
|
38 | 38 |
14º
|
36% | |
|
15º
|
36 | 37 |
15º
|
29% | |
|
16º
|
35 | 36 |
16º
|
41% | |
|
|
17º
|
33 | 34 |
17º
|
49.5% | |
|
18º
|
32 | 33 |
18º
|
61.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 77% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 23% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
16.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
83.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aprilia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
CSO
6 - 1
APR
51%
22%
27%
|
31 | 29 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
APR
0 - 1
ASI
40%
23%
38%
|
32 | 34 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
HYR
0 - 0
APR
64%
20%
15%
|
31 | 39 | 8 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
PAL
0 - 0
APR
29%
25%
46%
|
31 | 24 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2022 |
APR
0 - 2
SOR
41%
25%
34%
|
33 | 34 | 1 | -2 |
Matches
Paganese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
PAG
1 - 1
ASI
66%
18%
16%
|
41 | 34 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
POR
1 - 1
PAG
36%
24%
41%
|
42 | 36 | 6 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
PAG
0 - 1
PAL
83%
12%
5%
|
42 | 24 | 18 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
AUR
1 - 1
PAG
18%
20%
62%
|
42 | 28 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2022 |
PAG
3 - 2
ACC
84%
11%
6%
|
41 | 24 | 17 | +1 |