Ajax vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.6%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
15.8%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.8%
9.2%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2011 |
ADO
3 - 2
AJA
15%
20%
65%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2011 |
SPA
3 - 0
AJA
38%
24%
38%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | -1 |
| 13 Mar. 2011 |
WIL
1 - 3
AJA
14%
18%
68%
|
88 | 56 | 32 | +1 |
| 10 Mar. 2011 |
AJA
0 - 1
SPA
61%
21%
18%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | -1 |
| 06 Mar. 2011 |
AJA
4 - 0
AZA
64%
20%
16%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2011 |
HER
4 - 2
SCH
40%
25%
36%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2011 |
HER
4 - 1
EXC
66%
21%
14%
|
73 | 64 | 9 | +1 |
| 06 Mar. 2011 |
GRO
1 - 4
HER
54%
24%
23%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | +1 |
| 26 Feb. 2011 |
HER
6 - 1
VIT
52%
25%
24%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 2011 |
UTR
1 - 1
HER
61%
22%
17%
|
70 | 80 | 10 | +1 |