Accrington Stanley vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
15.8%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.1%
2-0
2%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
3.9%
1-0
4.2%
2-1
4.4%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
10.5%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.6%
64.6%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.4%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
7.1%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
19.5%
0-3
7.4%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.1%
0-4
4%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6%
0-5
1.7%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.4%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Accrington Stanley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2019 |
CHA
1 - 0
STA
53%
26%
21%
|
59 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2019 |
STA
0 - 0
BRO
51%
25%
24%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2019 |
STA
2 - 4
BCF
44%
24%
32%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | -1 |
| 05 Jan. 2019 |
STA
1 - 0
IPS
52%
23%
25%
|
60 | 56 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2019 |
BRA
3 - 0
STA
32%
27%
41%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2019 |
DER
2 - 1
REA
70%
19%
11%
|
74 | 60 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2019 |
SOU
2 - 2
DER
56%
24%
20%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2019 |
LEE
2 - 0
DER
35%
27%
38%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | -1 |
| 05 Jan. 2019 |
DER
2 - 2
SOU
36%
27%
37%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2019 |
DER
1 - 1
MID
47%
26%
27%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |