Champions League 2024/25 Title Odds: Who Are the Favorites as the Round of 16 Approaches?
This season marks the first edition under the revamped format, replacing the traditional group stage with a single-league phase that saw all 36 participating clubs compete in a Swiss-style table.
UEFA’s decision to implement a league-phase format was met with skepticism at first, but the early returns have been largely positive. The extended group stage ensured that every match mattered, with teams fighting for points in a more open and competitive structure. Instead of being confined to a small four-team group, clubs faced eight different opponents, making the qualification race unpredictable until the very end.
The changes have not only increased the drama but also reshaped the dynamics of qualification, leading to some surprising narratives and intriguing matchups.
The journey thus far has been marked by thrilling matches, standout performances, and emerging narratives that set the stage for an exhilarating knockout phase.
Who Are the Favorites to Win It All?
As we approach the business end of the tournament, the betting markets have begun to paint a clearer picture of who the main contenders are. Based on current odds, five teams stand out as the most likely to lift the trophy in Wembley this June.
These teams have impressed with their performances so far and are expected to go deep into the tournament due to their squad strength, tactical discipline, and Champions League pedigree.
In the following sections, we will break down the teams with the most favorable odds according to top betting sites, analyzing their journey so far, their Round of 16 matchups, and their chances of going all the way.
Real Madrid (+333)
Real Madrid, the reigning Champions League titleholders, have once again demonstrated their inevitability on the European stage. In the newly implemented league phase, Los Blancos showcased a potent offense, netting 26 goals across ten matches, averaging 2.6 goals per game. However, their defense has shown vulnerabilities, conceding 12 goals during this phase, and costing them enough points to keep them out of the top 8 automatic spots on the table.
The draw for the Round of 16 has set the stage for a thrilling Madrid Derby, with Real Madrid facing city rivals Atlético Madrid. The first leg is scheduled for March 4, at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.
Historically, Real Madrid has had the upper hand in European competitions against Atlético. Notably, they secured victories in the 2014 and 2016 Champions League finals. However, Atlético's recent form cannot be underestimated. They have suffered only one defeat in their last 26 matches across all competitions, indicating a resilient and in-form squad.
While their defensive record raises some concerns, Real Madrid's rich history, attacking capabilities, and strategic acumen position them as strong contenders not only to overcome Atlético Madrid in the Round of 16 but also to vie for the Champions League title.
Barcelona (+400)
FC Barcelona has exhibited a formidable resurgence in the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League, finishing second in the league phase to secure direct qualification to the Round of 16.
The team demonstrated offensive prowess, netting an impressive 28 goals across eight matches, averaging 3.5 goals per game. However, Barca’s defense has left a lot to be desired, as they let in 13 goals in the 8 group stage matches - the most out of any team in the top 16.
A notable highlight was their commanding 4-1 victory over Bayern Munich on October 23, 2024, breaking a six-match losing streak against the German side. This win underscored Barcelona's resurgence under coach Hansi Flick, who has instilled a more dynamic and cohesive playing style since his appointment.
In the Round of 16, Barcelona is set to face SL Benfica, with the Catalan club previously encountering them during the league phase, where they secured a thrilling 5-4 comeback victory.
Barcelona's potent offense, strategic midfield, and experienced leadership position them as strong contenders to progress past Benfica and continue their pursuit of Champions League glory.
Liverpool (+550)
Arne Slot’s Liverpool FC have showcased a truly impressive and robust performance so far. The team concluded the league phase as the table toppers, with seven wins, no draws, and one loss, scoring 17 goals (an average of 2.13 per match) and conceding only 5 (an average of 0.63 per match). They maintained an average possession rate of 54.63% and a passing accuracy of 87.88%.
In the Round of 16, Liverpool is set to face Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), a matchup that is particularly intriguing, as both teams have been in exceptional form. PSG has remained unbeaten at home in their domestic league and have scored a whopping 21 goals in their last 4 matches.
However, they will now face a Liverpool defense that has been resolute. The outcome of this tie will likely hinge on Liverpool's ability to maintain defensive discipline and capitalize on scoring opportunities against a resilient PSG side.
Arsenal (+600)
Arsenal has demonstrated strong form, finishing the league phase with six wins, one draw, and one loss, placing them third overall. The team scored 16 goals (averaging 2 per match) and conceded only 3 (0.38 per match), reflecting a solid defensive record.
In the Round of 16, Arsenal is set to face PSV Eindhoven, in a critical matchup for Arsenal, especially considering their recent challenges in domestic competitions.
PSV, having eliminated Juventus in the playoff round, presents a formidable challenge, especially as Arsenal faces injuries to key players such as Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz, both out for the season. Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are also sidelined, leading to an improvised attack that has struggled in recent matches.
Bayern Munich (+700)
Bayern Munich concluded the league phase with five wins and three losses, scoring 20 goals and conceding 12, which positioned them 12th overall. This standing necessitated participation in the knockout phase play-offs, where they faced Celtic FC. Bayern secured their spot in the Round of 16 with a 3-2 aggregate victory, winning 2-1 away and drawing 1-1 at home.
The Round of 16 presents an all-German clash, as Bayern Munich is set to face Bayer Leverkusen, adding another chapter to their heated domestic rivalry, with both teams eager to assert dominance on the European stage.
Historically, Bayern has found Leverkusen to be a challenging opponent. In their recent Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal encounters this season, Bayern has struggled to secure victories against Leverkusen, resulting in two draws and a loss. Bayern's ability to adapt and overcome their domestic rival will be crucial in determining their progression in the tournament.