Winterthur vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
30.2%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.1%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.4%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.6%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.7%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.1%
46.8%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.4%
0-2
6.6%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
14.1%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.1%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
4º
12º
5º
59
1º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 2024 |
ZUR
0 - 0
WIN
54%
23%
23%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 0
SER
33%
24%
43%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 1
WIN
56%
23%
22%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
WIN
2 - 0
GCZ
48%
24%
27%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
WIN
2 - 1
YVE
53%
23%
24%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Apr. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 0
BAS
38%
25%
37%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
STA
1 - 3
LUG
19%
21%
60%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 0
YVE
61%
22%
17%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
STG
2 - 3
LUG
43%
23%
34%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
FCL
0 - 1
LUG
35%
24%
41%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | +1 |