Winterthur vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.6%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.7%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
2%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.7%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
55.5%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9.4%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17%
0-3
5.7%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
3.8%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
4º
12º
5º
59
1º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
SER
2 - 2
WIN
50%
25%
25%
|
71 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
WIN
2 - 1
STA
48%
25%
27%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
FCA
1 - 2
WIN
39%
23%
38%
|
69 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
WIN
1 - 1
YVE
43%
25%
32%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
LAU
2 - 5
WIN
46%
25%
29%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
LUG
2 - 1
LAU
60%
23%
17%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
YOB
4 - 1
LUG
57%
21%
22%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2023 |
LUG
0 - 0
BOG
28%
23%
49%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
LAN
0 - 3
LUG
5%
12%
83%
|
81 | 40 | 41 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
FCL
3 - 2
LUG
36%
25%
39%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |