Winterthur vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
20.6%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.3%
1-0
6%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.3%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.9%
56.5%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
0-1
10.9%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.4%
0-3
6%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
9.2%
0-4
2.7%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.9%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
7º
10º
9º
57
2º
10º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions league qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
YOB
5 - 1
WIN
76%
16%
8%
|
67 | 85 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2023 |
WIN
2 - 1
FLO
24%
21%
55%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2023 |
RAP
0 - 2
WIN
12%
17%
71%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
WIN
6 - 0
DOR
76%
15%
9%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
WIN
5 - 1
FRE
59%
21%
20%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan. 2023 |
LUG
1 - 1
GCZ
50%
25%
25%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
SIO
2 - 3
LUG
28%
25%
48%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
LUG
3 - 0
NEX
75%
16%
9%
|
79 | 57 | 22 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
LUG
0 - 0
PGL
50%
25%
24%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2023 |
LUG
2 - 7
STP
48%
23%
28%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |