UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 2-2
Ventspils vs BATE Borisov analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
54%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
22.7%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ventspils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul. 2009 |
F91
1 - 3
VEN
43%
24%
34%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2009 |
VEN
3 - 0
F91
58%
22%
20%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | +1 |
| 08 Jul. 2009 |
VEN
5 - 0
SKB
73%
18%
10%
|
78 | 59 | 19 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2009 |
VEN
5 - 3
JFK
75%
17%
8%
|
78 | 57 | 21 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2009 |
RIG
0 - 5
VEN
26%
27%
48%
|
78 | 59 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
BATE Borisov
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul. 2009 |
BAT
2 - 0
MAK
67%
20%
13%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2009 |
MAK
0 - 2
BAT
27%
26%
48%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2009 |
GOM
0 - 3
BAT
39%
26%
35%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | +1 |
| 04 Jul. 2009 |
BAT
3 - 0
TOR
69%
21%
10%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2009 |
PMI
0 - 2
BAT
42%
27%
32%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | +1 |