Varde vs AGF Aarhus analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
12.9%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.9%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
3.7%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.1%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.2%
67.9%
Win probability
2.13
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
12.1%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.6%
0-3
8.6%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.9%
0-4
4.6%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.3%
0-5
1.9%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varde
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2012 |
VAR
2 - 2
KJE
67%
19%
14%
|
49 | 40 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
SOL
3 - 1
VAR
54%
22%
24%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
VAR
2 - 1
THI
37%
24%
38%
|
49 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2012 |
AAF
5 - 1
VAR
61%
22%
18%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 Aug. 2012 |
VAR
1 - 1
OTB
69%
18%
13%
|
50 | 39 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
AGF Aarhus
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2012 |
SIF
0 - 4
AGF
45%
26%
29%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2012 |
ACH
1 - 4
AGF
53%
25%
22%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | +1 |
| 19 Aug. 2012 |
AGF
0 - 1
FCN
31%
28%
41%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2012 |
FCK
3 - 0
AGF
65%
21%
14%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | -1 |
| 05 Aug. 2012 |
AGF
3 - 1
BIF
37%
26%
36%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | +1 |