Liga MX Finals - Clausura Semi-finals
Global 4-1
Toluca vs Tigres UANL analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.1%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.2%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.6%
17.3%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 2025 |
TIG
1 - 1
TOL
43%
24%
33%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2025 |
TOL
2 - 1
MON
54%
22%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2025 |
MON
3 - 2
TOL
47%
24%
30%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2025 |
TOL
2 - 2
CAZ
57%
23%
21%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2025 |
AUR
0 - 1
TOL
44%
24%
33%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Tigres UANL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 2025 |
TIG
1 - 1
TOL
43%
24%
33%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2025 |
TIG
2 - 2
NEC
47%
24%
29%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2025 |
NEC
0 - 0
TIG
56%
23%
21%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2025 |
CAZ
1 - 0
TIG
53%
24%
23%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 Apr. 2025 |
TIG
1 - 1
CAZ
51%
25%
24%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |