Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.9%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.9%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.4%
14.7%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar. 2006 |
STG
1 - 0
THU
47%
25%
29%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2006 |
THU
0 - 1
GCZ
49%
23%
28%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | -1 |
| 18 Mar. 2006 |
THU
2 - 1
SCH
72%
18%
11%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2006 |
YVE
0 - 1
THU
31%
27%
43%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | +1 |
| 04 Mar. 2006 |
THU
1 - 1
BAS
35%
25%
41%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2006 |
FCA
3 - 1
NEX
47%
26%
28%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2006 |
FCA
1 - 0
YVE
55%
24%
21%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2006 |
BAS
1 - 1
FCA
76%
15%
9%
|
70 | 85 | 15 | +1 |
| 19 Mar. 2006 |
FCA
1 - 1
ZUR
23%
24%
53%
|
70 | 84 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2006 |
YOB
2 - 1
FCA
72%
17%
11%
|
70 | 82 | 12 | 0 |