The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.4%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.5%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
20%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20%
17.6%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+86%
-11%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
60
1º
6º
1º
25
3º
8º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 44 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 41 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 40 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 33 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 27 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
25 | 25 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 20 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 1 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
TNS
2 - 0
PON
78%
15%
8%
|
67 | 47 | 20 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
BAL
0 - 5
TNS
49%
24%
27%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
AAA
1 - 1
TNS
4%
9%
87%
|
68 | 32 | 36 | -1 |
| 30 Sep. 2022 |
TNS
4 - 1
NEW
60%
21%
19%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 Sep. 2022 |
TNS
6 - 2
FLI
68%
19%
14%
|
67 | 58 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct. 2022 |
CAE
2 - 1
ABE
62%
21%
17%
|
60 | 54 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2022 |
CAE
2 - 0
FLI
51%
24%
25%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 2022 |
FMC
0 - 4
CAE
3%
9%
88%
|
59 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
PON
3 - 1
CAE
21%
23%
56%
|
60 | 46 | 14 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 2022 |
CAE
0 - 2
CON
41%
26%
33%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | -1 |