Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.2%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.9%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
23.4%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
15
6º
12º
7º
24
1º
6º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
1% | 31% |
|
Next round
|
33% | 63.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
66% | 5.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sydney FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2023 |
SYD
3 - 1
BRI
49%
23%
28%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
MCI
1 - 2
SYD
58%
22%
21%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
SYD
3 - 0
WUF
45%
24%
31%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | +2 |
| 30 Aug. 2023 |
API
0 - 2
SYD
8%
15%
77%
|
69 | 40 | 29 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
SYD
3 - 3
CCM
30%
23%
47%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2023 |
PER
0 - 4
MEL
33%
24%
43%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2023 |
NEW
2 - 2
MEL
37%
24%
39%
|
69 | 64 | 5 | -1 |
| 29 Apr. 2023 |
MEL
0 - 1
BRI
52%
24%
24%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
MEL
2 - 1
MFC
47%
25%
28%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | +1 |
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
WES
2 - 1
MEL
44%
26%
30%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | -1 |