Liga do Nordeste Qualifying Round Final
Global 4-2
Sousa vs ABC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
17.3%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.1%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.1%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
4.6%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.9%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
60.1%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
0-1
12.5%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.2%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
5.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18.6%
0-3
6.9%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
10.1%
0-4
3.1%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.3%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sousa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 2021 |
CON
1 - 1
SOU
79%
15%
7%
|
45 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2021 |
ASA
1 - 2
SOU
44%
26%
30%
|
44 | 42 | 2 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
UNI
2 - 0
SOU
57%
23%
20%
|
45 | 47 | 2 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
SOU
2 - 0
ABC
18%
25%
57%
|
44 | 56 | 12 | +1 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
CAM
1 - 0
SOU
56%
25%
19%
|
44 | 49 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
ABC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2021 |
APA
4 - 2
ABC
44%
27%
30%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2021 |
ABC
4 - 2
JAC
53%
24%
24%
|
56 | 53 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Oct. 2021 |
ABC
3 - 0
CAX
51%
26%
22%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 2021 |
CAX
0 - 0
ABC
42%
27%
31%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2021 |
ABC
2 - 0
4DE
65%
21%
14%
|
55 | 46 | 9 | 0 |