Italy vs Turkey analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.9%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
4.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
8.8%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
10.4%
3-0
14.6%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
18%
2-0
18.2%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
24.1%
1-0
15.2%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.7%
13.1%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
1.2%
3-3
0.1%
0
13.1%
4%
Win probability
0.36
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
1%
2-3
0.1%
3-4
0%
-1
3.4%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.5%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
BGR
79%
15%
6%
|
91 | 80 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
2 - 1
ITA
65%
19%
16%
|
91 | 94 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 1978 |
NLD
2 - 1
ITA
53%
23%
24%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | -1 |
| 18 Jun. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
AUT
77%
14%
9%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 1978 |
BRD
0 - 0
ITA
68%
18%
15%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Turkey
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
IRL
4 - 2
TUR
57%
22%
21%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 1978 |
TUR
1 - 1
ROU
33%
27%
40%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 1977 |
MLT
0 - 3
TUR
34%
24%
42%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | +1 |
| 16 Nov. 1977 |
TUR
1 - 2
DDR
24%
27%
49%
|
71 | 89 | 18 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 1977 |
TUR
0 - 1
AUT
27%
26%
47%
|
71 | 85 | 14 | 0 |