Italy vs Scotland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.1%
Win probability
2.55
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.7%
3-0
7%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
17%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17%
14.8%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 1965 |
SCT
1 - 0
ITA
43%
24%
32%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1965 |
ITA
6 - 1
POL
82%
12%
7%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | +1 |
| 27 Jun. 1965 |
HUN
2 - 1
ITA
75%
15%
10%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | -1 |
| 23 Jun. 1965 |
FIN
0 - 2
ITA
30%
24%
47%
|
89 | 47 | 42 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 1965 |
SWE
2 - 2
ITA
58%
21%
22%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Scotland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 1965 |
SCT
4 - 1
WLS
72%
17%
12%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 1965 |
SCT
1 - 0
ITA
43%
24%
32%
|
84 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1965 |
SCT
1 - 2
POL
69%
17%
13%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1965 |
NIR
3 - 2
SCT
34%
22%
44%
|
85 | 68 | 17 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1965 |
FIN
1 - 2
SCT
26%
21%
53%
|
84 | 47 | 37 | +1 |